Modeling Time Series for Prediction of Thalassemia in Nineveh Governorate

Authors

  • Shaymaa Riyadh Thanoon University of Mosul

Keywords:

السلاسل الزمنية

Abstract

The aim of this research is to analyze the time series of Thalassemia cancer cases by making assumptions on the number of cases to formulate the problem to find the best model for predicting the number of patients in Nineveh governorate using (Box and Jenkins) method of analysis based on the monthly data provided by Al Salam Hospital in Nineveh for the period (2014-2018). The results of the analysis showed that the appropriate model of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (2,1,0) and based on this model the number of people with this disease was predicted for the next two years where the results showed values ​​consistent with the original values  which indicates the good quality of the model.

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Published

2020-10-02